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23 February 2014

Supply side energy modelling with Steven Kopits

Some hours ago I had no idea who Steven Kopits was, much less the kind of work he has been doing. During the past week I received several times a link in my mailbox to a presentation of his at Columbia University. Last evening I finally found the space to give it a look and ended up watching the whole thing through. It is somewhat unexpected to get this sort of view from someone pretty much at the core of the industry, but you can not be a successful strategist basing your analysis on fairy tales.

Pity though that Steven Kopits falls into the common confusions between production and supply, consumption and demand. Nevertheless, he bluntly dismisses that mathematical and economic aberration termed "peak demand". Aside that I have no other criticisms, this is the best presentation on the petroleum market I have seen in a few years. Sharp remarks on the lack of consumption growth in China are enough to leave the demand side modelling out in the open for the hoax it is.

The video is below the fold. Jump to the Columbia University website for the presentation document and further information on the event.