Press review 20-04-2013

Ever since the Energy Commission put out the strategy that would later be approved and known as the 20-20-20 targets I've cautioned against the bio-fuels goals therein. First of all because it doesn't seem to be scalable, secondly due to the low EROEI figures and lastly because it promotes crops competing with food. This a week nothing short of a bomb fell on the head of the industry that grew on the back of this ill conceived policy: it is a massive money drainer.

EurActiv
Study: Biofuels took a €10 billion ‘Cyprus bailout’ in 2011
17-04-2013

Public support for biofuels in Europe in 2011 added up to €10 billion, a sum equal to the EU’s bailout of Cyprus, according to new research by the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD).

The study is to be launched today (17 April), shortly before French MEP Corinne Lepage, the European Parliament’s rapporteur on EU biofuels legislation, is due to present a report, which is expected to recommend the introduction of sustainability criteria to account for greenhouse gas emissions, caused by indirect land use change (ILUC).

The ISSD paper totes the total support for the EU’s biofuels industry in 2011 at between €9.3 and €10.7 billion, a figure that exceeds the total amount of private capital invested in biofuels installations by some 60%.

In recent days a research project aimed at identifying new management strategies to accommodate renewable energies into the electrical grid has been popping in the specialised press. The research is pointing to a decentralised grid with a host of small producers acting in an electricity "cash" market. Technically it might feasible, but I very much doubt traditional power suppliers will easily yield to such market structure.

AlterNet
Is Renewable Energy's Biggest Problem Solved?
Paul Brawn, 05-04-2013

The research is funded by the German Federal Ministry of the Environment and is aimed at showing that the entire electricity grid could be run on renewable energy.

Dr. Kurt Rohrig, deputy director of IWES, said: "Each source of energy - be it wind, sun or biogas - has its strengths and weaknesses. If we manage to skillfully combine the different characteristics of the regenerative energies, we can ensure the power supply for Germany.”

The idea is that many small power plant operators can feed their electricity into the grid but act as a single power plant using computers to control the level of power (see our story of 20 January, Renewables: The 99.9% solution).

This week The Guardian published one more article echoing the fossil fuel cornucopia dogma coming out of the IIASA. It is fascinating to see something like this published in one of the countries presently with the greatest difficulties to furnish itself with enough energy; as if the author writes from a place or time far away. But it is the word of the IIASA, it can not be brought to question, and it must be repeated eternally until it is taken as truth.

The Guardian
Why can't we quit fossil fuels?
Duncan Clark, 17-04-2013

Despite the clean technology of the past decade, we continue to extract and burn fossil fuels more than ever before

We have far more oil, coal and gas than we can safely burn.[...]

There are three facts that tell you all you really need to know about climate science and politics.

On more mundane politics another bombshell was dropped, this time on the heads of the austerity ideologues. Beyond the political symbolism of this finding, I'd like to focus on a side issue that few seem to have noted: Microsoft Excel is being used to dictate the economic predicament of hundreds of millions of people. Excel shouldn't be trust not even to calculate the expected value of a statistical series; no one trying to do Science on it should be taken seriously.

Washington Post
Is the evidence for austerity based on an Excel spreadsheet error?
Brad Plumer, 16-04-2013

One of the more influential studies that’s often used to argue for austerity has come in for an extensive new critique.

The paper in question is Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff’s famous 2010 study ”Growth in a Time of Debt,” which found that economic growth severely suffers when a country’s public debt level reaches 90 percent of GDP. That 90 percent figure has often been cited in the past few years as one big reason why countries must trim their deficits — even if their economies are still weak.

But a new critique (pdf) by Thomas Herndon, Michael Ash and Robert Pollin claims that this result may need revision. For one, the economists argue that Reinhart and Rogoff excluded three episodes of high-debt, high-growth nations — Canada, New Zealand, and Australia in the late 1940s. Second, they argue, Reinhart and Rogoff made some contestable assumptions about weighting different historical episodes.

Also of note the increasing recognition of the failure of austerity in Britain, this time admonished by the IMF. Intriguing is why is the IMF still pressing along with these policies in Greece and Portugal; perhaps because the aim is not really to tackle sovereign debt or address budget imbalances.

The Guardian
IMF puts pressure on George Osborne with criticism of cuts


George Osborne is under mounting pressure to moderate his austerity strategy after the International Monetary Fund went public with fears that the pace of budget cuts is too severe for Britain's ailing economy.

The fund said it would be holding talks with the chancellor about his tax and spending plans in the wake of gloomy forecasts that subjected the UK to the biggest growth downgrade of any developed country for 2013 and 2014.

Olivier Blanchard, the IMF's chief economist, singled out Britain as a country that needed to adopt a less aggressive approach to deficit reduction

Closing a stunning article at PCWorld claiming that open source is taking over the software world. Open source is now synonym with quality and innovation and is being largely embraced by the industry. The writing has been on the wall, but the debacle Windows 8 is, allied to the rise of mobile systems, is finally forcing a different regard from commercial agents in this market.

PCWorld
Open source is taking over the software world, survey says
Katherine Noyes, 17-04-2013

It's been only a few weeks since the Linux Foundation released its report that enterprise use of Linux continues to rise, but on Wednesday fresh data came out that suggests the same is true of open source software in general.

Specifically, Black Duck Software and North Bridge Venture Partners today announced the results of the seventh annual Future of Open Source Survey, which found that open source software has matured to such an extent that it now influences everything from innovation to collaboration among competitors to hiring practices.

"It's been recognized that software is eating the world,” said Michael Skok, general partner at North Bridge Venture Partners. “Our survey points to the fact that open source is eating the software world."

Have a nice weekend.

Press review 13-04-2013

Last weekend the political setting in Portugal went one notch up on dramatisation on the wake of a decision by the Constitutional Court, that deemed four measures in the 2013 budget unconstitutional. Sunday the Prime Minister declared war on the people and Monday the Finance Minister froze all public administration expenses. The Parliament pretends everything's normal and the President is happy not to get directly involved. Democracy is suspended for the moment in Portugal, a country that has become this quiet powder keeg that everyone know will blow up some day.

This is why the following interview becomes relevant. Current policies implemented in Europe are totally unsustainable, and if for some the crisis has been quite profitable, it isn't hard to see the profiteering will end soon.

Press review 06-04-2013

This week's review is again dominated by Natural Gas, but the highlight goes to this chart:

Press review 30-03-2013

Events in Cyprus eventually took a course not as bad as it looked a week ago. Small savers were spared, share holders and bond holders were hit first and mid to large savers got uneven slashes, depending on how bad was their particular bank. Painful, but way more logical than the brain-dead proposal that initially came out of the Eurogroup. Cyprus is now entering an impoverishment cycle that was likely unavoidable.

This new way of dealing with ailing banks, hitting lenders (into which savers are included) instead of simply offloading debt on sovereign states, marks a clear turning point in the European crisis. Time will tell if this is a good path or not; it is a two edged sword, if on the one hand it protects sovereign states from the risks of the financial sector, it also undermines trust on banks. In a few months time, when it will become clear that Portugal is insolvent, we shall see the real repercussions of this new policy.

Mid week the spotlight was turned on other small states that have economic models similar to Cyprus'. One of these states is Luxembourg, where I presently live, and the answer from the local government was quite interesting, even if somewhat obvious.

Press review 23-03-2013

Amateurish. Of all the adjectives used to describe the "aid" package proposed by the EE/ECB/IMF triumvirat to Cyrpus this is probably the sharpest one. Beyond the legal question it raises and the social harm it can inflict, it is a huge strategic blunder. A bank run in Cyprus is now a certainty, rest is to know if it will percolate to other members of the Eurozone. I don't have a particular hunch, but the probability of contagion happening is now much higher than what it was a week ago. And above all, what I don't really get is why was this made without Russia and to a good extent against Russia. It seems like the folk inside the Eurogroup are completely unaware of what's going on outside their offices Unaware that the Russian Government and Gazprom have complete control over our energy system; if they get angry enough to close the gas tap we'll be back to the dark ages in days. I'll expect further developments before a deeper reflection on this mess (time permitting).

And it is precisely gas the inner page story that is important to highlight this week, yet again. Below the fold you'll find a presentation by Alistair Buchanan, head of Ofgem, the UK energy watchdog. Although a few months old, it is well worth the time it takes to listen, describing in great detail how perilous Britain's dependence on gas has become.

Press review 16-03-2013

This week the Catholic Church got a new Pope, after the surprising resignation of Benedict XVI. The much awaited announcement habemum papam was followed by an also surprising name: Jorge Bergoglio. After weeks of speculation and many papable lists issued around, the elected is someone that few where aware even existed. It turns out Bergoglio had been the runner up when Benedict XVI was elected; just to show how clueless the media was, and is, on this particular subject, as it unfortunately is in many other domains. So far I'm well impressed with the new pope and I quite like his choice of Francis for a name. May God be with him.

On more material subjects, the news of the week was the weather (I'd never seen so much snow fall in my life). This meant more trouble for the UK, that continues to struggle with its gas supply. Record low reserves and record high prices again this week and the cold seems to set to continue.

Nektar - 1972 - A Tab In The Ocean

If you're into Space Rock, like me, one day you'll end up bumping into this band called Nektar. In my case it took a few years but I eventually got there. There are all sorts of oddities about Nektar, starting with the fact of this being a British band based in Hamburg. They were well into the German progressive scene of the day and were of one of the first bands working with Dieter Dierks, along side names like Embryo, Gila, Wallenstein and Tangerine Dream. Naturally this has lead some folk to simply classify them as a Krautrock band; a closer look reveals otherwise.

Their second LP, A Tab In The Ocean, was recorded in 1972, with Dierks already well established as a master of the Krautrock scene. It proposes a surprising and exhilarating voyage through some futuristic landscapes never explored before. All wrapped in a recording very particular of its place and place. The strident sound of the guitar and especially some drum elements may make it a though hearing for some, especially those used to Hi-Fi quality. But with some effort the melodies eventually emerge and overwhelm the listener.