tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31362834749441122002024-03-14T04:57:31.886+01:00At The Edge Of TimeAnalysis on Energy and Politics. Musings on Software and Music.Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08895745055248556694noreply@blogger.comBlogger283125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3136283474944112200.post-65837601112418861482018-12-20T15:48:00.000+01:002018-12-21T11:18:53.524+01:00The Charge of the Light Brexit Brigade
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<i>Into the valley of death<br>
Rode May's two hundred<br>
Europhobe to the right of them<br>
Opposition to the left of them<br>
Country in front of them<br>
Volleyed and thundered</i>
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<a style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;" href=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Charge_of_the_Light_Brigade.jpg><img align=right width=365 src=https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/1/18/Charge_of_the_Light_Brigade.jpg/320px-Charge_of_the_Light_Brigade.jpg></a>
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<tr><td></td><td><center><i>The Charge of the Light Brigade</i> by Caton Woodville</center></td></tr></table>
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<a href="https://attheedgeoftime.blogspot.com/2018/12/the-charge-of-light-brexit-brigade.html#more">Read more »</a>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08895745055248556694noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3136283474944112200.post-75820023280605582282018-07-17T08:00:00.000+02:002018-07-17T08:13:43.941+02:00Message to FOSS4G-Europe 2018<STYLE TYPE="text/css">
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<i>This is a message sent to the plenary of the <a href="https://foss4g-europe.osgeopt.pt/">FOSS4G-Europe 2018</a> conference. This conference took shape largely from my initiative and I was part of the Local Organisation Committee. Click on the logo for the conference web site.</i>
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Dear all,
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The history of this conference dates back to August of 2016, when the international FOSS4G was held in Bonn. Seven Portuguese attendants gathered in that conference, most of which are OSGeo charter members. However, only one of those actually lived in Portugal at the time. The financial crisis sent many professionals abroad and our community seemed particularly affected.
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Slowly the idea formed in the back of my mind: why not turn the issue on its head and bring FOSS4G to Portugal? As the conference moved on from presentations to code sprint, me and Jorge Gustavo were left as the last Portuguese at the BaseCamp in Bonn. The discussion started: while the international conference would possibly be too much for the modest OSGeo-Portugal, the European edition looked feasible. And with the international conference taking place outside of Europe in 2018, there seemed to be a nice gap for OSGeo-Portugal to fill in.
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<a href="https://attheedgeoftime.blogspot.com/2018/07/message-to-foss4g-europe-2018.html#more">Read more »</a>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08895745055248556694noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3136283474944112200.post-79990314783678559952017-12-17T18:08:00.001+01:002017-12-17T18:08:12.662+01:00Interview to Ames RadioWeeks ago I concede an interviewed to the programme <a href=http://pt.ivoox.com/pt/podcast-vivirmos-nun-mundo-finito_sq_f1466609_1.html><i>Vivirmos nun mundo finito</i></a> (Galician for <i>To live in a finite world</i>) broadcast by Ames Radio. The programme is produced by <a href=https://amespospetroleo.wordpress.com/quen-somos/>Ames Pospetróleo an organisation dedicated to steer the transition of the city of Ames in Galicia to the post-petroleum era.
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Galician and Portuguese are two languages that evolved from Romance (the language spoken in Europe during the Roman Empire); geography kept them close enough for broad mutual understanding. Galician sounds crystal clear to a Portuguese person, but for a Galician the Portuguese intonation becomes more challenging towards the south, where vowels are half muted and the Arabic influence is heavier. Still, I could address the listeners in Portuguese, opening my vowels and slowing down my speech. Hop below the fold for a digest in English with some additional reflections.
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<iframe id='audio_22321709' frameborder='0' allowfullscreen='' scrolling='no' height='200' style='border:1px solid #EEE; box-sizing:border-box; width:100%;' src="https://pt.ivoox.com/pt/player_ej_22321709_4_1.html?c1=ff6600"></iframe>
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<a href="https://attheedgeoftime.blogspot.com/2017/12/interview-to-ames-radio.html#more">Read more »</a>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08895745055248556694noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3136283474944112200.post-64404257590483905282017-11-19T13:40:00.000+01:002017-11-19T13:40:54.750+01:00A good example of how Brits were mislead on the EUDays ago I was embroiled in a closed mail-list discussion on Brexit regarding the Common Agriculture Policy (CAP) and wild life protection programmes. The subject was a reportage by a famed British euro-sceptic journalist, aired just days before the referendum:
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<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/NKIYFhRBPmU" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>
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I attempted to show my colleagues the dimension of the falsehoods in this reportage, but George Monbiot seems to be a holy cow of sorts in environmentalist circles, thus my argumentation was not welcome. Under the coat of a left-leaning environmentalist George Monbiot engages in unconstrained bashing the EU, sowing unwarranted mistrust and scepticism. This makes for a good example on how the British public has been mislead, that must be fully understood. Therefore I leave here my reasoning for future reference.
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<a href="https://attheedgeoftime.blogspot.com/2017/11/a-good-example-of-how-brits-were.html#more">Read more »</a>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08895745055248556694noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3136283474944112200.post-43228366049116870252017-10-31T20:15:00.000+01:002017-11-09T17:46:20.758+01:00The new Nissan Leaf and the future of electric cars<STYLE type="text/css">
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The new Nissan Leaf is finally here. This was one of the most anticipated cars of 2017, and with good reason, since it is the most successful electric vehicle in the auto industry history. Over 300 000 units have been sold worldwide so far, with certainly more to come, the new Leaf platform giving shape to other vehicles later to be marketed by Nissan and Renault.
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What is the exact significance of this car? What is it telling of the future of electric cars <i>vis à vis</i> conventional internal combustion engines? This note approaches these and other questions from a mostly numeric based perspective.
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<a href="https://attheedgeoftime.blogspot.com/2017/10/the-new-nissan-leaf-and-future-of.html#more">Read more »</a>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08895745055248556694noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3136283474944112200.post-56907019214303901842017-09-22T17:58:00.002+02:002017-09-22T17:58:57.829+02:00Dismissing misunderstandings on the EEA AgreementMuch confusion - or outright misinformation - continues to circulate in the UK media regarding the exit of the country from the EU. Particularly inflicted is the difference and relationship between the EU, the political union, presently governed by the Lisbon Treaty, and the European Economic Area (EEA), the trade union, ruled by the EEA Agreement.
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Days ago The Independent newspaper published an enigmatic article in which it is claimed, among other oddities, that article 127 of the EEA Agreement can stop the current process of exit from the EU. Reproduced below is a short note I sent the editors of The Independent clarifying some of the misunderstandings in the article.
<br><br><a href="https://attheedgeoftime.blogspot.com/2017/09/dismissing-misunderstandings-on-eea.html#more">Read more »</a>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08895745055248556694noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3136283474944112200.post-57403726694315890642017-08-20T20:31:00.001+02:002017-08-21T09:45:35.534+02:00What the fall of the Sterling really means<a style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;" href=http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/currency/12140736/Pound-could-crash-by-20pc-if-UK-votes-for-Brexit-warns-Goldman-Sachs.html><img align=right width=230 src=http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/03264/newPic_3042_PNG_3264600b.jpg></a>
Last Friday the Sterling closed at 1.094 to the Euro. Not only is it a remarkable figure for crossing below 1.1, it is the lowest weekly close since 2009. In effect, since the common currency was introduced to currency markets in 1993, the Sterling closed against it below this level only in eleven other weeks. They all took place between December of 2008 and October of 2009, at the height of the housing crisis, when European institutions failed to address financial markets with the haste seen in grown-up economies.
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This brief note puts this monetary devaluation into a broader perspective, within the context of the UK's exit from the EU. Sterling is just a visible facet of an overall economic setting deteriorating in anticipation of the UK's shift into a new - and largely unknown - economic paradigm.
<a href="https://attheedgeoftime.blogspot.com/2017/08/what-fall-of-sterling-really-means.html#more">Read more »</a>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08895745055248556694noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3136283474944112200.post-68642593339097483072017-07-17T16:30:00.000+02:002017-08-29T09:38:53.030+02:00How BP is detracting renewable energy in its Statistical Review<script src="https://code.highcharts.com/highcharts.js"></script>
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Every June it happens more or less the same way. British Petroleum (BP) publishes its Statistical Review of World Energy, venting out a few catchy phrases that the mainstream media mindlessly repeats. This time the catch-phrase was: "overall energy consumption is growing faster than renewable energies put together". This discourse is naturally convenient to those set on promoting fossil fuels and/or detracting renewable energy. But is BP really a trustworthy source on the matter?
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BP's statistics are a rare source of energy data available for free to the public. For that reason I used it to study fossil fuels for several years. However, its quality visibly degraded with time, and by 2010, as it become impossible to reconcile consumption and extraction figures, I stopped using it. If the BP's data is unreliable regarding fossil fuels, should it be taken as such on renewable energy? That is what this short note tries to find out.
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<a href="https://attheedgeoftime.blogspot.com/2017/07/how-bp-is-reporting-renewable-energy.html#more">Read more »</a>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08895745055248556694noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3136283474944112200.post-89035783456974939282017-04-17T16:55:00.002+02:002017-04-17T17:00:39.870+02:00Why Gnome 3 can not replace Unity 7<a style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;" href=https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-2HjdGL2Iqfc/WPNGJNrBHKI/AAAAAAAABvo/6hYAWgXvgmI0VxkVUvJYPkSRGgv1uMKbgCLcB/s1600/LaunchersUnityGnome.png><img align=right src=https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-2HjdGL2Iqfc/WPNGJNrBHKI/AAAAAAAABvo/6hYAWgXvgmI0VxkVUvJYPkSRGgv1uMKbgCLcB/s1600/LaunchersUnityGnome.png></a>
For a few seconds I thought it was just an April Fool's prank, but the date of <a href=http://www.omgubuntu.co.uk/2017/04/ubuntu-18-04-ship-gnome-desktop-not-unity>the article</a> dismissed any doubts. Canonical is to put an end to user interface development towards the vision of <a href=http://attheedgeoftime.blogspot.ch/search/label/convergence>Convergence</a>. The arguments are pretty compelling: the market does not exist. Four years after the Ubuntu Edge campaign it is indeed startling that not a single carrier joined in to experiment the novel concept.
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Together with this shock announcement there was something far more overreaching: Canonical is to drop Unity 7 from Ubuntu in 2018. The desktop environment developed in house is to be replaced by Gnome 3. Further news reinforced the trend: staff to be laid off and the CEO stepping down. Canonical seems to be abandoning user interface development all together.
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It was great while it lasted, but after almost five years using Unity 7 it is time to move on. But where to? Is Gnome 3 really an appropriate replacement? Below the fold is a detailed account of my experience of two days of work on Gnome 3.
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<a href="https://attheedgeoftime.blogspot.com/2017/04/why-gnome-3-can-not-replace-unity-7.html#more">Read more »</a>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08895745055248556694noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3136283474944112200.post-17873049917325808742017-04-15T12:58:00.001+02:002017-04-15T12:59:10.901+02:00Time is ripe for open source labelling<a style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img align=right src=https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-V6Ul4ObcFpQ/WPH62LHHu5I/AAAAAAAABvA/-lB7qKPCPoUcqGgVQIqSHI1bpr2nkysRQCLcB/s1600/OpenSource.png></a>
In what is largely an acknowledgement to the influence open source has today in the software industry, it is becoming increasingly common for corporations to promote commercial products as open, when they are anything but.
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Beyond the obvious ethical objections to this practice, the negative impact it has on the industry is to no one's interest. Open source products are often developed with public money, be it through research programmes, public administration initiatives or local authorities. These initiatives have created an implicit open source brand, synonym with freedom of development and local based support and maintenance.
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By misleadingly identifying their products as open, corporations cash on the open source brand, essentially promoting monetary flows that invariably end outside Europe. This is a complete subversion of the economic and social dynamics of open source software.
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<a href="https://attheedgeoftime.blogspot.com/2017/04/the-time-is-ripe-for-open-source.html#more">Read more »</a>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08895745055248556694noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3136283474944112200.post-20622223528554749022017-03-05T17:20:00.000+01:002017-03-06T18:45:10.803+01:00Tailor made politics<a style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;" href=http://www.dfiles.me/tailor-fitting.html><img align=right width=250 src=http://lsa5.0.assets.s3.amazonaws.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/Wardrobe-bespoke-tailor_measures-are-taken.jpg></a>
2017 is election year in various economic heavy weight members of the EU. The Netherlands comes first, with the suffrage scheduled for the 15<sup>th</sup> of March.
<br><br>Polls keep showing the PVV of Geert Wilders ahead, with twenty odd percent of votes, almost double of the record score the party obtained in 2010. In face of such projections the foreign <i>media</i> focuses almost exclusively on Wilders, the candidate that easily produces sensational headlines with his extreme right rhetoric.
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If the rise of Wilder's party is substantial, more important is what is happening with the remaining parties.
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<i>This article first appeared in Portuguese language at <a href=http://bomdia.eu/politica-a-medida/>BomDia.eu.</i>
<br><br><a href="https://attheedgeoftime.blogspot.com/2017/03/tailor-made-politics.html#more">Read more »</a>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08895745055248556694noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3136283474944112200.post-55749783137230666162017-02-25T11:09:00.000+01:002017-02-25T11:09:11.338+01:00Cobalt and other resource scarcity stories<table align=right>
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<tr><td><center><i>Image from <a href=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cobalt>Wikipaedia</a>.</i></center></td></tr></table>
Various natural resources have been popping up in so called business news in these first weeks of 2017. As the world economy gets up to gear again, the struggle of Man against the finiteness of planet Earth becomes salient once again.
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Overnight, an obscure metal seems to be setting an entire industry into peril. As remarkable as the news itself is the lagging response of the mainstream media to these matters, apparently only able to report on resource constraints only in the face of acute scarcity.
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<a href="https://attheedgeoftime.blogspot.com/2017/02/cobalt-and-other-resource-scarcity.html#more">Read more »</a>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08895745055248556694noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3136283474944112200.post-52438667805053914672017-02-02T21:28:00.001+01:002017-02-03T10:55:20.980+01:00The Nemesis<a style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;" href=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nemesis_(mythology)><img align=right width=150 src=https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/6/61/Alfred_Rethel_002.jpg/263px-Alfred_Rethel_002.jpg></a>
<i>This is a translation into English of an article originally written in Portuguese for <a href=http://bomdia.eu/a-nemesis/>BomDia.eu.</i>
<blockquote width=400px>I had in a previous career a diplomatic post where I helped bring down the Soviet Union. So maybe there's another union that needs a little taming.</blockquote>
It was this way that <a href=http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/donald-trump-eu-ambassador-ted-malloch-tame-european-union-like-brought-down-soviet-union-russia-a7549696.html>Theodore Malloch described the functions</a> he will soon take by the EU, as ambassador of the USA. This is in no way a <i>lapsos linguae</i>, but rather a symptom of an overt drive by the USA to dismantle the EU. The support provided by the US government to euro-phobic politicians, or <a href=http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-trump-strategy-idUSKBN1342TP>the announced arrival to Europe of BreitbartNews</a> (an extreme right propaganda medium whose director integrates the new US government) are other pieces of the same puzzle.
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Irrespectively of the credibility one may lend to personalities like Theodore Malloch, it is important to understand the root of this threat to the European Union.
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<a href="https://attheedgeoftime.blogspot.com/2017/02/the-nemesis.html#more">Read more »</a>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08895745055248556694noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3136283474944112200.post-77601578417383010592016-12-11T13:16:00.000+01:002016-12-11T13:16:08.110+01:00This could be it for Silver
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Commodities headlines have been dominated again this year by petroleum. Sluggish prices, falling extraction rates and exporting nations in trouble have provided much fodder for the specialised media. As a matter of fact, prospects have not changed that much from last year, in spite of a deeper than expected fall in extraction rates.
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There are other natural resources though, that provide perhaps a more vivid view of your relationship with the finite planet we leave in. Recent data dug out by Steve StAngelo at the SRSRocco Report points to <a href=https://srsroccoreport.com/peak-silver-continued-supply-deficits-warns-of-future-higher-prices/>a peak in world Silver extraction in 2015. The likelihood of this being a terminal peak is rather high, more so than 2015 setting the terminal peak for petroleum.
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<a href="https://attheedgeoftime.blogspot.com/2016/12/this-could-be-it-for-silver.html#more">Read more »</a>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08895745055248556694noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3136283474944112200.post-82846707353680700212016-12-05T19:47:00.000+01:002016-12-05T19:47:13.995+01:00EROEI estimates show PV to be a fully mature technology"The EROEI of Photo-Voltaics can be whatever you like these days" a friend of mine said once after attending a bio-physical economics conference. It epitomises a growing problem in this field, while the broad concept of net energy or Energy Return on Energy Invested (EROEI) is broadly accepted there is no unified methodology for its calculation. Different researchers apply different methods producing markedly different results.
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Photo-Voltaics (PV) is energy source where this problem has been more acute. Equipment and installation prices collapsed four or five fold since 2010, but published EROEI studies have not converged; in fact it appears they dispersed even further.
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Fortunately, another friend, Rembrandt Koppelaar, has recently finished a study assessing these assorted EROEI estimates, entitled <a href=http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2016.10.077>Solar-PV energy payback and net energy: Meta-assessment of study quality, reproducibility, and results harmonization</a>. As it turns out, low EROEI figures are largely an artefact of outdated data and double accounting. A message by Rembrandt summarising the results of his study is reproduced below.
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<a href="https://attheedgeoftime.blogspot.com/2016/12/eroei-estimates-show-pv-to-be-fully.html#more">Read more »</a>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08895745055248556694noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3136283474944112200.post-20443370625966425102016-11-29T20:24:00.000+01:002016-11-29T20:36:14.313+01:00Leaving the EU implies automatic exclusion from the EEA?<table align=right>
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<center><i>Image from <a href=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Economic_Area>Wikipaedia</a>.</i></center></td></tr></table>
This question is slowly percolating through the wall of noise around the UK's exit from the EU. More attentive folks are wondering if to leave the European Economic Area (EEA) a formal notification is required. I.e., if beyond triggering Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, in order to fully exit its social and economics commitments the UK needs to trigger Article 127 of the <a href=http://www.efta.int/media/documents/legal-texts/eea/the-eea-agreement/Main%20Text%20of%20the%20Agreement/EEAagreement.pdf>EEA Agreement</a>.
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This question is highly relevant for a simple reason: membership of the EEA was not voted in referendum, therefore the UK institutions - Government, Parliament and House of Lords - are not morally obliged to any particular course of action in this regard. If leaving the EU does not automatically exclude the UK from the EEA, it will then remain a full member of the so called "Common Market" with all the rights and obligations it entails.
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<a href="https://attheedgeoftime.blogspot.com/2016/11/leaving-eu-implies-automatic-exclusion.html#more">Read more »</a>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08895745055248556694noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3136283474944112200.post-142920442044921762016-09-05T21:18:00.001+02:002016-09-05T21:18:30.417+02:00Presenting the Fix Ubuntu script setThe upgrade from Ubuntu 14.04 to 16.04 has been the most problematic between Long Term Support (LTS) releases of this Linux distribution that I have experienced. The system itself is stable enough (apart from the usual hiccups with cutting edge hardware) but when it comes to applications problems mount. I have had difficulties using almost every one of the programmes I most rely on. In the majority of cases the root cause is an important loss of features and functionality.
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Every time I install or re-install Ubuntu 16.04 there is now a long list of tweaks and fixes to do in order to achieve a minimally usable desktop system. I eventually developed these fixes into a set of shell scripts to automate these tasks. I am now releasing a first tentative version of this script set gathered in a project christened <a href=https://github.com/ldesousa/fix-ubuntu>Fix-Ubuntu</a>. More details under the fold.
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<a href="https://attheedgeoftime.blogspot.com/2016/09/presenting-fix-ubuntu-script-set.html#more">Read more »</a>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08895745055248556694noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3136283474944112200.post-58736974654429866382016-07-16T22:58:00.000+02:002016-07-16T22:58:12.589+02:00Letter to readersDear readers,
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The past two months I have been fighting a serious health condition. At this moment I am almost fully recovered and well off any sort of risk. However, a number of weeks away from work have complicated my calendar, compounding a backlog of things yet to achieve that now impend on the next few months.
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As expected in the aftermath of this sort of events the general course of one's life is up for reconsideration. I fell I am now at a critical junction in my career and must carefully weight the next steps. There is a window of opportunity right ahead, that if fully missed might mean an early end to my time as a researcher.
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Therefore I took the decision of entailing an extra effort to make the most of my present professional situation and maximise its possible outputs. While research is not all roses, this is definitely the sort of career I wish to follow.
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An immediate consequence of this decision is the suspension <i>sine dia</i> of the press review. As can be guessed by the various gaps in recent times, it has become increasingly difficult to produce a weekly edition. In truth I can no longer guarantee the regularity maintained heretofore.
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I myself know very well the disappointing feeling of seeing a regular content stream one got used to going off the air. And for that I present my apologies. However, I can assure this was a well pondered decision.
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This is not the end of this blog, writing is to me a matter of necessity. Occasional commentary on the course of events will certainly continue to come, not only on energy but also on the other matters covered in this space.
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Here I leave a short list of news sources that I used regularly to prepare the press review:
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<a href="https://attheedgeoftime.blogspot.com/2016/07/letter-to-readers.html#more">Read more »</a>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08895745055248556694noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3136283474944112200.post-18921802607516274042016-06-19T17:10:00.000+02:002016-06-19T17:10:10.555+02:00Press review 19-06-2016 - DecomissioningThe Brent index has been trading within a band around 50 $/b as increasing consumption trends meet increasing global economic and political uncertainties. Daesh spilt more blood in OECD countries with terror attacks in the US and again in France. But in the Middle East the caliphate is clearly loosing ground, especially in Iraq, where the US seems to have definitely chosen the Shiite site of the war.
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However, markets are mostly concerned these days with the referendum in the UK regarding its membership of the European Union. The shocking murder of a Labour MP days ago underlines the dramatic moments lived in the country around this decisive moment. Even though the UK is not part of the Eurozone and not part of Schengen space, most foreign analysts and pundits are taking this referendum as an omen on the future of the European Union itself.
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And next Sunday there is a new parliamentary election in Spain, which is shaping up to produce a left front government, not very different from the situation in Portugal. This coming week is the most important moment for the European Union since the Lisbon treaty was signed. For bad or for worse, the EU might well enter a completely different course just a few days from now.
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<a href="https://attheedgeoftime.blogspot.com/2016/06/press-review-19-06-2016-decomissioning.html#more">Read more »</a>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08895745055248556694noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3136283474944112200.post-84425037664599198612016-06-08T19:13:00.000+02:002016-07-26T11:28:50.816+02:00Photo-Voltaics is not an energy sink in Switzerland<script src="https://code.highcharts.com/highcharts.js"></script>
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<a style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;" href=http://re.jrc.ec.europa.eu/pvgis><img align=right width=320 src=http://re.jrc.ec.europa.eu/pvgis/cmaps/eu_cmsaf_opt/G_opt_CH.png></a>
Energy Policy recently published <a href=http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421516301379>a study conducted on the EROEI of Photo-Voltaics (PV) technologies installed in Switzerland</a>. The end result is a remarkably low figure of 0.8:1, well below any EROEI assessments ever conducted on this energy technology.
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Such a figure naturally made the delight of <a href=http://euanmearns.com/the-energy-return-of-solar-pv/>those campaigning against renewable energy, who take at face value any hints of negative performance. However, from this study a number immediately stands out: average lifetime energy yield of 106 kWh/m2/a. As it turns out, a closer look at this single figure is enough to disprove the hypothesis of PV being an energy sink in Switzerland.
<a href="https://attheedgeoftime.blogspot.com/2016/06/photo-voltaics-is-not-energy-sink-in.html#more">Read more »</a>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08895745055248556694noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3136283474944112200.post-23081003577493179132016-06-04T08:37:00.001+02:002016-06-04T08:37:29.426+02:00Press review 04-06-2016 - Spike under the radarThe Brent index traded again above 50 $/b in various occasions throughout the week. However, the benchmark would close Friday pretty much were it started on Monday, perhaps showing that this fourth leg of the 2016 rally is running out of steam. Corporate news dominated the press pages, with another failed OPEC meeting largely relegated to the background.
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There is now a good deal of discussion going around a coming petroleum price spike. The unfolding decline in world extraction is becoming pretty obvious with some analysts and pundits even risking to put dates on a return to high prices. While it is true that Brent has rallied for five consecutive months, there are still the above ground stocks to go through. Prior to this hypothetical spike another important event must take place: a shift of the futures curve into backwardation. That will be the first sign of a tightening market, flagging the need for stocks outflows.
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<a href="https://attheedgeoftime.blogspot.com/2016/06/press-review-04-06-2016-spike-under.html#more">Read more »</a>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08895745055248556694noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3136283474944112200.post-40512373497861067452016-05-28T12:02:00.002+02:002016-05-28T12:02:07.445+02:00Press review 28-05-2016 - Still in contractionCompared to the last this was a quiet week. The mainstream media is still trying to explain how its "lower for longer" mantra failed so miserably, but to what pure facts is concerned the pace slowed down. Brent continued its rally, but with considerably less volatility. It traded above 50 $/b for a few hours on Thursday, producing some hastened headlines.
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Nigeria remains the most visible and worrying story in the petroleum world. The government appears powerless at this moment to stop the rebels hitting the country's petroleum infrastructure. Events seem to be spiralling out of hand with a relevant impact on the international petroleum market.
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In Venezuela petroleum extraction is holding above 2 Mb/d, however, the socio-economic situation is so deteriorated that some sort of political disruption seems now inevitable.
<a href="https://attheedgeoftime.blogspot.com/2016/05/press-review-28-05-2016-still-in.html#more">Read more »</a>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08895745055248556694noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3136283474944112200.post-41474113316592270372016-05-21T23:07:00.000+02:002016-05-22T12:19:46.213+02:00Press review 21-05-2016 - The declineAlberta was again at the news forefront this week. Monday authorities ordered the immediate evacuation of various oil sands extraction sites north of Fort McMurray, as the wild fires turned again towards the West. While there are no precise news on damages to mining or processing facilities, a number of living quarters for industry workers are known to have been raised. Broad numbers, over 1 Mb/d have been offline for two weeks.
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Day trading was hectic again in the petroleum market, the Brent index flirted with 50 $/b, then collapsed to the low 47s $/b, just recover back again. Still, this ended up being the highest weekly close price for Brent since last October.
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Various price oracles have substantially changed their outlook this week, now totally dismissing the "lower for longer" mantra they were touting just a couple of months ago. What happens next largely depends on the faith of <a href=http://attheedgeoftime.blogspot.com/2016/05/the-mystery-of-petroleum-stocks.html>900 Mb held in extra stocks by China or the OECD</a>. In any case, a <a href=http://attheedgeoftime.blogspot.com/2016/05/this-is-peak-oil.html>long term petroleum extraction decline</a> is mostly guaranteed.
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<a href="https://attheedgeoftime.blogspot.com/2016/05/press-review-21-05-2016-decline.html#more">Read more »</a>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08895745055248556694noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3136283474944112200.post-68416516044886503852016-05-19T20:29:00.000+02:002016-05-21T09:17:58.449+02:00This is Peak Oil<script src="https://code.highcharts.com/highcharts.js"></script>
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<a style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;" href=http://europe.theoildrum.com/node/4870><img align=right width=270 src=https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-Tf9QuPljF-M/VzyrMN6c3bI/AAAAAAAABTQ/BGFeOm4EGOoKMdUDVmRDG71z72RTs0JhgCLcB/s1600/Cycles.png></a>
Titling the <a href=http://attheedgeoftime.blogspot.com/2015/12/press-review-26-12-2015-year-petroleum.html>last press review of 2015</a> I asked if that had been the year petroleum peaked. The question mark was not just a precaution, the uncertainty was really there. Five months later the reported world petroleum extraction rate is pretty much still were it was then. This is not a surprise, but the impact of two years of depressed prices is over due.
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Nevertheless, during these five months of lethargy the information I gathered brings me considerably closer to remove the question mark from the sentence and acknowledge that a long term decline is settling in. Understanding the present petroleum market as a feature of the supply destruction - demand destruction cycle makes this case clear.
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<a href="https://attheedgeoftime.blogspot.com/2016/05/this-is-peak-oil.html#more">Read more »</a>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08895745055248556694noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3136283474944112200.post-25051103062330641772016-05-15T19:57:00.000+02:002016-05-18T20:14:35.035+02:00The Mystery of Petroleum Stocks
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A number of days ago I started updating some datasets that had been left outdated for the lack of time. The jump in world petroleum extraction since early 2014 is obvious, but I wonder what happened to consumption in the meantime. The Energy Information Agency (EIA) in the US produces what I regard as the most reliable statistical dataset on petroleum available publicly. In times passed I used their worldwide stocks flow records to derive consumption from extraction figures. Unfortunately, the EIA <a href=http://www.eia.gov/cfapps/ipdbproject/IEDIndex3.cfm?tid=50&pid=5&aid=5>stopped published</a> this particular dataset.
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This sent me on a quest for world petroleum stocks figures in order to estimate consumption. As it happens, there is at this stage no publicly available dataset on this matter, therefore any consumption estimates made presently have to rely on guesses. This post present the searching and guessing I did to arrive at my estimate.
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<a href="https://attheedgeoftime.blogspot.com/2016/05/the-mystery-of-petroleum-stocks.html#more">Read more »</a>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08895745055248556694noreply@blogger.com0